III. The Future

Moon base
http://www.sciam.com/explorations/1998/0316moon/lunox.html
Image: John Frassanito and Associates for Johnson Space Center

1. Introduction

    Lunar Prospector's preliminary results, of their ongoing mission, seem the confirm that there is frozen ice water on the Moon. This announcement has jump-started the continuing development of programs to build lunar bases and colonies on the Moon. Most people would agree that  humanity will spring into space, the question is just where to go, the moon or mars. Establishing a manned station on the moon may not be to far away with the discovery of ice on the moon. The last Apollo mission returned to the earth over 25 years ago and since that time NASA has sidestepped the moon. Plans to establish permanent bases on the moon have been postponed due to budget constraints, and ambitious plans for establishing bases were abandoned. Finally, a low-budget space probe called prospector announced on March 5, 1998 that soil from the moon's frozen poles contain ice, the revelation has stimulated mission plans (Scientific American Inc., March 16, 1998). The water can be used to make fuel to power spacecraft. This could cut costs significantly, possibly providing a filling station on the way to and from Mars. NASA researchers are developing ideas that will utilize the Moon’s resources, for example the extracting of oxygen and helium-3 from lunar soil. Over the next few years, new missions to the moon studying structure of the moon and landing a robotic rover are planned. The resources on the moon are as alluring as the gold rush of the 19th century and many kinks have to be worked out between government and private interest groups before the resources can be commercialized and developed.
 
 2. Manned Station Possibility

    With Lunar Prospector and the confirmation of ice located at the Moon’s north and south poles, NASA has had to upset its future plans for manned missions to the Moon. If the water can be extracted from the Lunar regolith it will significantly cut the cost of establishing lunar bases on the moon. The water can be used to make fuel for spacecraft that might travel from the Earth to the Moon and could also cut costs by a factor of ten; making fuel available for voyages to Mars could reduce the cost in half (Scientific American Inc, 1998). Humans must have water in order to survive the harsh environment of the Moon and space exploration. Prospector has proven that the Moon is not a dry barren sphere that orbits the Earth as previous Apollo studies had established, but it may have turned this frozen lunar soil into the most important piece of real estate in the solar system (Scientific American Inc, 1998). Water is the most important ingredient for life, but it can also be broken down into its elements:  "Hydrogen and oxygen." These elements can be used to make breathable air, electricity, power, and to fuel rockets.
    One of the problems of high cost was having to ship water from the Earth to the Moon. At this time it cost about 10,000 dollars to ship one pound of material into space but NASA is researching ideas to cut the cost by a factor of 10 to 1,000 dollars per pound (Scientific American Inc, 1998).. Even with the lower cost and recycling, it still would cost trillions of dollars to ship water to permanent bases (Scientific American Inc, 1998). It has been calculated by NASA that an area of frozen lunar soil the size of a football field can generate enough water for drinking, bathing and washing and food preparation for up to a six member crew for over a year (Scientific American Inc., March 16, 1998). The power generated can produce 100 megawatts electricity for an entire year and yield rocket propellant to carry two crews of four people from the Earth to the moon for up to a year.
    At any rate the latest developments have caused NASA to change or alter mission plans. One such plan is called LUNOX for "Lunar Oxygen." The idea was to extract oxygen from the lunar soil by heating it to a molten state and this process had sprung plans to use the leftover remains to make bricks to build future colonies (Scientific American Inc., 1998). Although the news of water already on the moon would make the technology useless the plans of the mission it self could be useful when establishing a base on the moon. The images below were prepared by NASA to describe the LUNOX mission. The only difference now between this scenario and what will happen is that scientists have a far less costly plan to split water into hydrogen and oxygen by electrolysis, which uses an electrical current to break up water molecules.



Liftoff 
http://www.sciam.com/explorations/1998/0316moon/lunox.html
Image: John Frassanito and Associates for Johnson Space Center
 
Module Landing 
http://www.sciam.com/explorations/1998/0316moon/lunox.html
Image: John Frassanito and Associates for Johnson Space Center

Oxygen Plant
http://www.sciam.com/explorations/1998/0316moon/lunox.html
Image: John Frassanito and Associates for Johnson Space Center

Habitat modules 
http://www.sciam.com/explorations/1998/0316moon/lunox.html
Image: John Frassanito and Associates for Johnson Space Center

Crew departs 
http://www.sciam.com/explorations/1998/0316moon/lunox.html
Image: John Frassanito and Associates for Johnson Space Center

Crew landing 
http://www.sciam.com/explorations/1998/0316moon/lunox.html
Image: John Frassanito and Associates for Johnson Space Center

Moonbase 
http://www.sciam.com/explorations/1998/0316moon/lunox.html
Image: John Frassanito and Associates for Johnson Space Center

Moon launch 
http://www.sciam.com/explorations/1998/0316moon/lunox.html
Image: John Frassanito and Associates for Johnson Space Center



3. Lunar Resources
 
Image: Lunar Institute of Technology
http://sunsite.unc.edu/lunar/school/near_earth/hel.jpg

    In order to establish a permanent community on the moon, we have to be able to utilize the resources available. The real test of a programs success is whether people stay or not. In order for this to happen people need to be able to extract and use local resources to make their settlements permanent. If we are unsuccessful we would have to ship everything from the Earth and that would become to expensive and cumbersome, and these settlements would be deserted. Of course the market will dictate what products the settlement will produce. First we will need to send robotic units ahead of crews to do important experiments and follow that with engineering prototypes to demonstrate and verify the technology and products.
 We know from past explorations and examination that the lunar material, soil, and rock compositions of the moon contain chemically bound oxygen which adds up to approximately 45% of the weight of lunar rocks and soil (Scientific American Inc, 1998). These materials are also made up of silicon, iron, calcium, aluminum, magnesium, and titanium which can be extracted as metals; quite possibly as by product of extracting oxygen. Lunar soils have trapped a number of different kinds of particles from solar wind over billions of years and contain helium, hydrogen, nitrogen, and carbon from the Sun. These elements can be heated into a gas and be extracted, along with other light gases, we can extract an non-radioactive isotope of Helium-3 (He-3) from the lunar soil (Scientific American Inc, 1998).  He-3 can be used for fusion reactors here on Earth and promises to be a much cleaner than fission-based plants using uranium. The U.S., European, and Japanese fusion research scientists are currently working on He-3 as a primary fuel of a clean nuclear fusion reactor (Lunar Institute of Technology, 1998).

4. Future Missions

    Now that the moon is considered a valuable piece of real-estate its resources are sure to spark intense political debate by over the way the lunar resources are used. During the next few years a number of nations will send unmanned spacecraft to the moon in an effort to establish permanent facilities and observatories. By 1999, the Japanese will send a seismic probe called Lunar-A (Scientific American Inc, 1998). It will image the surface of the moon and send down three "penetrators," which are designed to plunge into the Moon’s surface. The penetrators have seismometers to monitor moon quake activity over the next year and produce 3-D images of the Moon’s interior. It will also carry a device to measure heat flow through the lunar soil. In 2002, the European Space Agency (ESA), will land a robotic rover (Scientific American Inc, 1998). The project known as (LEDA) which stands for Lunar European Demonstration Approach, will carry a soil-processing test facility and will collect samples with its robotic arm. It will be equipped with a drill where it could possibly extract water from the south polar region on the Moon (Scientific American Inc, 1998). The Lunar Orbiting Observatory Mission (LOOM), has been scheduled to embark on its mission in 2002 by Japan. Its mission is to map the entire lunar surface which will take two or three years and a probe will be landed to demonstrate landing technology (Scientific American Inc, 1998). Finally, the Japanese will send into lunar orbit Selene 1. It will be carrying 15 instruments including a radar sounder, laser altimeter, X-ray flourescence spectrometer and gamma-ray spectrometer to study the origin, evolution, and tectonics of the Moon (Scientific American Inc, 1998). Following its year long orbit the orbiter will touch down on the lunar surface for two months of operations.
 
5.  Conclusion
 
    I believe the future of Moon looks bright. With continued collective efforts from all nations, we can hope to establish permanent lunar bases and colonies on the Moon. Developing the lunar resources is also very important to humanity living and working on the Moon. Still, much more research is needed before we have domes of inhabitants extracting water from the soil below. Exploration of the lunar surface in search of oxygen-rich soil, hydrogen, helium-3, and water, has to be a major priority for NASA. What worries me is with these resources available for the taking is it may be as alluring as the wild frontier. There might be a rush of people trying to develop and mine the Moon, hoping to reap the rewards for them personally. Hopefully there can be a moon treaty devoted especially to the development of the Moon’s resources signed by all nations but I’m sure there are going to be some private interest groups that will want a piece of the action. In reality, we are still some time away from human habitation on the moon, so don’t sell your house yet. The question is not if, but when these visions will become reality and with the confirmation of ice on the Moon it will surely speed up the time table.